Is India ready to put to work the demographic advantage it has ?
Interesting article in Wall Street yesterday on the shift in demographics and how that affects Nation’s Wealth by David Wessel (LINK ). The article quotes Dominique Strauss-Kahn who believes that shifting demographics will shift the wealth of nations and over the next 40 years. “Power equals Numbers”. Thus the rising influence of China and India. His argument is that because of globalization , smaller countries which had technogical prowess would ultimately lose that edge as containing technology becomes harder in a globalized world and hence they lose their advantage.
The author’s view point is that in the long term, each country which may have a demographic advantage faces equally daunting challenges to overcome to take advantage of the benefits and that US may be in a sweet spot down the road.
Here is some baseline data:
By 2050 Japan and Europe will see working age population shrink by 30 mil and 37 million .
China’s working population will keep growing for 15 years and then turn down . China will have 100 million fewer people in workforce than today.
India will grow by 300 million working age persons over the next 40 years.
300 million additional people in workforce.
What will stop India for achieving the growth of nation’s wealth and leverage a workforce to deliver to the world ? According to the author archaic labor laws,bring more women in workforce & invest in education and training. If all the roadblocks are removed it could add 4% point to economic growth according to Goldman Sachs.
Add to the challenges narrowing the rural-urban divide, building infrastructure. A tall order but achievable if there is the will.
No relate
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.
